Home Cooking Outpaces Dining Out in 2025

Back to the Kitchen: A Shift in 2025

In 2025, more families are trading restaurant tables for their own dining rooms. Rising menu prices, coupled with inflation across the hospitality sector, have fueled a comeback of home cooking as the dominant way Americans eat.

According to Bloomberg, household grocery spending in the U.S. rose 9% in 2024–25, while restaurant traffic stagnated, signaling a lifestyle shift shaped by economics and culture.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Restaurant menu prices rose 6.8% year-over-year, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Grocery spending grew 9%, outpacing dining out (WSJ).
Quick-service restaurant traffic declined 3% in 2025 (CNBC).
Home meal kit sales surged 15% year-over-year (Forbes).
According to the USDA, 54% of American food spending now goes to groceries, up from 48% in 2022.

The Financial Times notes: “The kitchen has become both a cost-saving strategy and a lifestyle statement.”

Why Families Are Choosing Groceries Over Restaurants

1. Economic Pressures

Dining out for a family of four averages $85 per meal, compared to $25–30 at home (CNBC).
Labor costs and new wage laws (e.g., California’s $20 restaurant minimum wage) pushed prices higher (Bloomberg).

2. Health & Wellness

Cooking at home allows better control over ingredients and nutrition (Healthline).
63% of Americans say they eat healthier when cooking themselves (Bon Appétit).

3. Family Connection

Surveys show 72% of parents value cooking together as family bonding time (Eater).
Shared meals offer routine and comfort in an uncertain economy.

Cultural Signals: Food Media and Home Chefs

TikTok cooking videos under #HomeCooking surpassed 5 billion views in 2025 (NYT).
Celebrity chefs like Ina Garten and José Andrés released budget-friendly cookbooks that trended on Amazon.
Meal kit companies like Blue Apron and HelloFresh now offer low-cost “family bundles”, fueling demand (Forbes).

Home cooking has shifted from “cost-saving” to mainstream lifestyle choice, blurring the line between necessity and aspiration.

Global Trend: Not Just the U.S.

In the UK, dining-out frequency fell 8% as families tightened budgets (Guardian).
In Japan, convenience store meal sales rose 12%, replacing restaurants for weekday meals.
Across Europe, inflation drove a 10–15% increase in grocery spending, with pasta, rice, and frozen goods leading demand (Reuters).

The World Bank projects global household food-at-home spending will rise 20% by 2030.

The Hospitality Industry Responds

Restaurants are adapting with strategies to counter the trend:

Family meal bundles: Olive Garden, Chipotle, and McDonald’s offer larger shareable options.
Discount days: Chains reintroduce “kids eat free” nights.
Hybrid models: Grocery chains like Kroger and Walmart launch restaurant-style ready meals (Bloomberg).

Yet many independents report sluggish sales as consumers prioritize home kitchens.

The Economics of Home Cooking

Average U.S. household spends $5,750 annually on groceries, up from $5,250 in 2023 (USDA).
Restaurant spending growth slowed to 1.2% in 2025, compared with 6% annually in pre-pandemic years (WSJ).
Families cooking at home save $3,500–$4,000 annually compared to dining out (CNBC).

As Forbes put it: “For many households, the new luxury is not dining out—it’s saving money.”

Consumer Sentiment

82% of families surveyed said cost was their top reason for cooking at home (Guardian).
67% said they enjoy cooking more since 2020.
43% of Gen Z say they prefer experimenting with recipes over restaurant dining (Eater).

Food is becoming a form of entertainment, not just consumption.

Looking Ahead: What’s Next for Dining Trends?

Analysts predict:

Meal kit subscriptions will grow 20% by 2027 (Statista).
Home appliances like air fryers and smart ovens will continue to fuel at-home dining growth (CNBC).
Restaurants will pivot to experience-driven dining (chef’s tables, immersive events) to compete with the affordability of home meals (Financial Times).

Conclusion: Kitchens as the New Restaurants

In 2025, the dinner table has become the new frontier of lifestyle and economics. Families are reclaiming kitchens not just to save money, but to take control of health, culture, and connection.

For consumers, home cooking offers affordability and meaning.
For restaurants, it signals a need to evolve.
For the economy, it reflects how inflation is reshaping even the most personal choices: what we eat, and where we eat it.

As NYT observed: “The kitchen has once again become America’s most important dining room.”